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Karl Denninger raises some interesting points in noting a consistent thread with the handful (sometimes more) of banks that fail every weekend. In the post he details the extent to which the value of assets was aOlernKienOP
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Karl goes on to list several more specific banks and asks the reasonable question, that aOlernKienOP
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It is not clear to me that assuming an overstatement in a percentage similar to other banks is valid, but the question aOlernKienOP
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When I first started this site in 2004 I was underweight financials because their weight in the S 500 was around 20%, which I took as a warning of potential underperformance, not Armageddon. At that point I owned a bunch of foreign banks, including two European banks and one domestic bank which was BAC. Then in early 2006 the yield curve inverted, which is a warning for the economy, but also specifically for financials because it makes lending less profitable but this again did not point to Armageddon. At this point in the portfolio, financial stocks had drifted to a slightly smaller weight due to the performance of other things.
Then in mid to late 2007 after reading for weeks and weeks why European banks might be worse off than US banks, I sold the two European banks (Allied Irish Bank (AIB) and a couple of months later Barclays (NYSE:BCS). I bought a Chilean bank with the aOlernKienOP
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I realize this is a repeat theme but if this (the entirety of the entire financial crisis) was anywhere near as big as we were led to believe, then isn’t it only logical that it will take a long time before we understand the totality of it all? aOlernKienOP
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