The last two months have been a story of two different shoe retailers. Finish Line (NASDAQ:FINL) shares have plummeted, while Foot Locker (NYSE:FL) has moved higher.

Shares of FL soared on the August 22 earnings beat. Then, just over a month later, FINL released earnings that sent the stock tumbling. Over the last three months FINL is down 18.3% while FL Air Jordan 2011 is up 8.4%.

Let’s assume for a minute that FINL is truthful in its tale that basketball hurt its business last quarter, doesn’t that mean that FL could be set up Jordan 13 Retro for a weak quarter ahead?

As we’ve noted before about FL,

Foot Locker is highly levered to the basketball business. The beauty here is that basketball products carry premium prices, hence, higher margins.

FINL is tailored to cater to the slower growth running segment, albeit a market that’s just as large as the basketball segment. In any case, Given FL has a greater reliance on basketball shoes than FINL, we think investors should taper their bullish thesis on the stock.

Drawing the comparisons (contrasts) between FL and FINLFirst, the two are not Air Jordan 12s just similar with their business models, but

(1) FL offers a 1.57% dividend yield and FINL’s is at 1.27%.

(6) Over the last three years, the two have traded in tandem on a forward ev/ebitda basis. But now shares of FINL trade at 5.6x forward ev/ebitda multiple and FL trades at 7.75x one of the largest divergences we’ve seen over the last three years. FL did get a multiple re rating after its stellar quarter with its forward P/E expanding from 14.5x to its current 16.3x. But is such a premium to FINL really justified?

How’d FINL miss with Nike posting strong results?Both shoe retailers get the majority of their business from selling Nike (NYSE:NKE) products, which accounts for about 70% of each of annual product purchases.

Nike continues to kill it and likely will for some time. So that means good things for FINL and FL, right? Not necessarily. Together, FINL and FL spend around $5 billion annually on their cost of sales, so their impact on Nike is very small. Nike is growing its direct to consumer and e commerce platform nicely, meaning the recent success of Nike could have nothing to do with FINL or FL.

The other thing is that FINL’s weakness in basketball shoes was driven by softness in its Jordan lines, not Nike. The good news there (for FINL) is that it might be a specific brand/product issue.

As a side note, it’s hard to use Nike as a bellwether for basketball shoes:

(1) Nike’s biggest shoe segment remains running (in terms of sales to wholesalers) accounting for 20% of wholesale brand sale.

(2) And Nike only gets 60% of revenues from footwear.

Contrarian view and Air Jordan 20s why FL could withstand the same fate as FINL

The one positive for FL is that it has less reliance on shoes than FINL. FINL gets some 88% of revenues from shoes, while FL generates just 76% from footwear.

What’s more is there is still an opportunity for FL to outperform expectations, where although it generates a larger part of company wide revenues from apparel, this segment has been underperforming over the last few quarters.

Bottom lineFL appears to be a best in show shoe retailer, but we are more cautious after FINL’s results. We are already within striking distance of our initial FL price target of $58 and the stock trades at a justified multiple.

For FINL, we’re still well off our $30 to $35 price target. But that assumes that FINL should be trading more in line with FL. If it margins and growth prospects remain tapered, then FINL’s discount will prove to be justified. As a side Air Jordan 5s note, FINL will be going up against toughcomps for the next couple of quarters. Comps for the current quarter (3Q) are 7% and then 6% for 4Q.

We would play wait and see until FL’s upcoming quarterly results before making a decision on whether FINL’s recent price action is a buying opportunity.

FL is set to release earnings in a couple months, toward the end of November. If FL shows signs of weakening (where the basketball business could prove to be a weakness for FL too) we’d revisit both shoe retailers to determine whether we’re facing a near term hiccup or market shift. (More.)